The Changing Nature of the Terror Threat against Israel
The Changing Nature of the Terror Threat against Israel
And How Should We Cope With It?
The terror threat against the free world in general and Israel in particular comes today mainly from 2 groups of radical Islamists who have a lot in common and occasionally cooperate with each other but at the time have many differences and sometimes even confront each other bitterly.
The Al-Qaeda group on the one hand and the Iran group on the other hand are both interested in changing the existing world order so that Islam and its values will have a dominant role in the new order. Both believe that terrorism is a legitimate and recommended way to promote this end and do not rule out the possibility of using unconventional weapons as a terror tool. Both regard Israel as illegal entity and are committed to its annihilation but consider the United States as the arch enemy that has to be defeated for their vision to come true.
But while Al-Qaeda and its affiliates and mutations focus their terror activities against western targets, especially Americans, and against the pragmatic pro-western regimes, the Iranian led group focuses its terror against Israel.
Although the Iranian led group is dominantly Shiite, it does include radical Sunnite groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic jihad, because its focus is on Israel. Moreover, in areas where it is not in control or thrives to have control, such as Afghanistan or Yemen, Iran and its supporters do not oppose the activities of the Al-Qaeda group members, since they target their opponents, and support those elements which challenge Western interests. (Like the Shiite Hutties in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq, etc.)
It turns out that while the US and the free world focus their counterterrorism efforts on Al-Qaeda, Israel confronts mainly the Iranian led group, which - unlike Al-Qaeda affiliates - enjoys the full support of two capable and dangerous state sponsors - Iran and Syria, who provide their proxies with capabilities that are far more then what was usually considered as common weapons of terror groups. Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ are the arms of terror against Israel, the body is in Syria and the head is the Iranian regime. This is another reason why this non-conventional regime should not have non-conventional capabilities, namely, military nuclear capability. The Iranian regime might use the military nuclear capability as an “umbrella” to intensify his terror attacks and for producing “dirty bomb” for proxies.
While each one of us focuses on its area of operation, we have to remember that these are two complementary parts of the same effort to secure the free world from the dangerous and ruthless attempt of the Jihadists to change the world order. We have to be aware that in some of the cases, especially when it comes to the Iranian effort to acquire the potential to have military nuclear capability, we have to work together, with the support of the international community, to prevent this danger from materializing.
As a matter of fact, the Zionist movement has been a target of terrorism for a long time. This was the catalyst of its self defense buildup beginning with the establishment of “Hashomer”, in 1908, and thereafter the “Hagana” and the “Irgun”. The IDF, The Israeli security Agency “Shabak”, the “Mossad” and the Israeli Police also had to spend much of their efforts through the years on fighting terror, on top of defending Israel against conventional military threats.
Since 1973 the terror threat has become the major way of action of our opponents. Realizing that they cannot beat us in the conventional battlefield even if they enjoy full surprise, they were deterred from launching another conventional war. Whereas the Egyptians, and later the Jordanians, drew the lesson that they will be better off by signing peace agreements with us, the radical and turbulent elements in the Middle East decided to focus on terror, identifying the Israeli society as the weak link in the Israeli posture. They thought that because the Israeli society is becoming wealthier and more individualistic it is losing its willpower to sacrifice for a cause that is disputed among its members. Since the logic behind terrorism is not only to cause maximum damage and casualties to the civilian population of their adversary, but mainly break the willingness of the targeted society to fight, through weakening its stamina and delegitimizing its narrative, they believed they found a better way to reach their goals.
Obviously, terror is not a spontaneous act. It is a product of a political decision at the highest levels and a systematic indoctrination, and usually its implementation is made possible through well organized systems that enjoy the support of states sponsors like Iran and Syria. Such a system and such indoctrination enabled the terror against Israel reach new peaks.
The basic logic of terror has not changed much through the years, but the form of the terror against Israel has changed constantly. This was driven by four main sorts of reasons:
1. Political developments like the peace agreements, the Iranian revolution and the establishment of the Palestinian Authority following the “Oslo agreements”.
2. The readiness of Israel to allow changes in the situation on the ground, in a way that was perceived and presented as succumbing in front of terror, like the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and the disengagement from Gaza.
3. Israeli military successes such as the confrontation with the terror emanating since 2000 from areas controlled by the Palestinian authority in Judea and Samaria (”Defensive Shield Operation”) or the show of force in the Second Lebanon War and operation “Cast Lead” in Gaza.
4. A constant learning and adjustment of the terror organizations and their patrons to the changing environment in which they were functioning, including adaptation to the proliferation of ungoverned territories, new technological capabilities, new communication systems and new mass media opportunities.
Beginning in the eighties, following the Islamic revolution in Iran, the ousting of the Soviets from Afghanistan and the corrupt nature of the Palestinian Authority under Chairman Arafat, these changes were manifested in the shift of the center of gravity of the terror from nationalistically motivated groups to radical Jihad elements - both Shiites and Sunnis. This trend was accompanied by a considerable emphasis on homicide suicide bombing, driven by the distorted interpretation given by radical Islamic clerics to the idea of Istishhad (martyrdom).
In recent years, following the Israeli withdrawals and achievements, the characteristics of the terror threat Israel faces continued to change significantly. The main features of this threat today are:
1. The terror organizations are going through a process of institutionalization. Each one of the main terror groups is becoming more deeply involved with running a state like system and taking upon itself police like missions in the areas under its control. Moreover they run military like organizations on top of their terror arms.
2. The direct daily friction between the terror organizations that preach for using terror and Israeli targets is minimal or totally absent.
3. The involvement of the patrons of the terror organizations, mainly Iran and Syria, in supporting them with weapons, training, money, intelligence and political assistance has grown considerably.
4. The terror organizations were clearly deterred from launching a new terror campaign against Israel after “Defensive Shield Operation”, the Second Lebanon War and operation “Cast Lead”. They focus therefore on acquiring more weapons and preparing themselves for another round. They do this while taking advantage of the insufficient interference of regional and international elements that are supposed to prevent that from happening.
5. Due to all of the above their main weapon has become the longer range rockets and missiles that are supposed to reach population centers in the heart of Israel instead of the suicide bomber.
In countering these terrorist threats, we must answer two questions. First, “Is it possible to reach a decisive conclusion to terror?” To this, I answer affirmatively: Yes, it is possible to reach a decisive conclusion to the threat of terrorism. We must therefore ask, second, “How do we achieve this conclusion? What should we do to address the new features of the threat?”
On the policy and strategy level, we have to realize that:
1. Capitulation to terror only begets more terror. This is a well known lesson we have learned from our withdrawals. Under no circumstances should we surrender to terror.
2. We should insist on full and irreversible giving up of the terror option as a condition for progress towards peace. Such irreversible attitude requires a bottom up approach, namely changing the education messages to support peace and refraining from incitement to violence and hatred, fighting against terror, building reliable institutions, preserving law and order and developing an uncorrupt economy. Without these changes any agreement is just a temporary ceasefire, or Hudna, used by the terror groups to rearm. We should encourage those who are ready to embark on this process and fight those who refuse to, but we shouldn’t be misled by superficial moves and make sure that this attitude is for real. This of course is besides our expectations from a peace agreement that include among other things recognition in Israel right to enjoy peace within secure, recognized and defensible borders as the nation state of the Jewish people and demilitarizing the Palestinian state.
3. Deterrence against terror organizations has to be maintained. We should make it clear that we can and will respond very strongly to any attempt to harm us through the use of terror. We have to adhere to the notion that the best defense is a good offense.
4. An effort to prevent the arming of the terror groups with better weapons and to develop ways and means to protect the Israeli population from these weapons.
5. Strengthening the social solidarity, the national resilience and the public confidence in the justice of our cause. When terrorists cause physical and psychological damage to the civilian population, public resolve is almost as important as having military superiority. To promote such resilience we as the leadership have to convince the public that terror can be overcome and that it should be fought until it is defeated, even if success will take time and sacrifice, and an education system that builds the national resolve, asserts the national narrative and promotes a national vision.
6. Maintain the moral high ground and fight for legitimacy. We have to continue to make sure that our counterterrorist operations are designed to keep the civilians on both sides as far from the conflict as humanly possible. As long as we do so we should not be affected by baseless, biased and intentionally anti Israeli papers like the Goldstone committee report.
I’d like to elaborate on this issue:
The Goldstone Report is the most evident example of the new blood libels, whose purpose is to deprive Israel from the ability to defend itself on the military, the legal and the diplomatic arenas.
As the former Chief of the General Staff of the IDF I can assure you that the Israeli armed forces code of conduct and its values are based on the principle of sanctity of life and require our soldiers to refrain from harming civilians as much as possible, even during fierce fighting. Our enemies, the terror organizations, take advantage of that, and while they launch their rockets and carry out terror attacks deliberately in order to murder our civilians they hide behind their civil population, whom they use as “human shields”.
The state of Israel, the homeland of the Jewish people, that 65 years ago lost 6 million of its members in the extermination camps of Auschwitz, Maidanek and the rest needs no lectures about morality and the importance of life sanctity. We don’t have the option of losing the moral high ground. Those who feed baseless accusations against us don’t know anything about us, and don’t understand what enabled the Jewish people to survive for more than 3,000 years.
Yet we have to wage this legitimacy campaign not only to defend ourselves but to defend the rest of the Free World against the attempt of Jihadi Islam to change the world order, by turning any military move against them into a war crime.
Anyhow - in spite of these attempts - Israel will do whatever is necessary to defend itself. We just do not have any other choice.
7. Constant reassessment and learning of the developing situation, in order to keep being relevant to the changing and new challenges, prepare for new threats and identify opportunities. The only constant in counter-terrorism is the change.
8. Maximize the cooperation with our partners in this confrontation in the international and regional arenas as well as with moderate elements within the Palestinian society. In spite of the disagreements we may have with some of these partners we shouldn’t forget that we have more in common and through dialog we can explain our point of view, listen to theirs and wherever we can work together we should. For example, these partners can play a significant role in the bottom up process.
On the operational level, we should focus on:
1. Operational creativity and flexibility. Terrorists are ephemeral targets who operate from within civilian environment. Therefore they pose a special challenge. The fact that they use modern arms makes the ability to reach them even more complicated and demanding. The element of surprise and the capability to adapt quickly and be on time at the right location require continuous creativity, especially in urban areas, which means also taking calculated risks when necessary.
2. Intelligence dominance is the key for success in the fight against terror. It is necessary for providing early warning to foil terror attacks, for supplying the accurate information needed for offensive operations and for understanding the way the terror organizations change their modus operandi and learn.
3. Information dominance - namely improving the ability to convey real time intelligence and other information to the front lines. To meet this need we have to develop state of the art C4I systems and full cooperation between the different organizations involved in the war against terror.
4. Improving the defensive measures. Although the best defense is a good offense, we should not ignore the importance of defensive counterterrorist measures. But since they normally require massive resources outlays the availability of military and economic resources must be considered, as well as the political and humanitarian impact of some of these measures, like the checkpoints and the fence. But we should not forget the order: First of all, offence, than fence and defense.
5. This emphasizes the need even on the operational level to strike the proper balance between achieving security and “winning the hearts and minds” of the target audiences in this conflict.
6. Safeguarding the morality in war is crucial for both and must remain a supreme value of the Israeli defense and security organizations.
If we stick to these principles we can win the complicated and demanding war against terror and defeat the terrorists.
Terror can and should be defeated for the sake of the Free World.
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